February 2013

Dear readers, welcome to the new TGD newsletter. This month, apart from having a much jazzier layout, we have Nouriel Roubini writing on what awaits the world economy in 2013; Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England discusses the unresolved issue of "too big to fail", a review of the new biography of the poet Thomas Wyatt by Susan Brigden; Daniel Wagner and Giorgio Cafiero on Libya's radical Muslim groups and politics in the Central African Republic; Daniel Levy from the European Council on Foreign Relations on the Israeli elections; Astrit Dakli on the resurgence of religion violence in Russia; Moctar Aboubacar on the peace keeping mission in the Congo; Charles Wyplosz on the Eurozone and European politics in 2013; Nick Buxton and Ben Hayes on Doha and the climate change issue and Andrei Zaostrovtsev on Russia's "Oprichnik Economy". Happy reading.

The Economic Fundamentals of 2013
By Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, Professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics takes a look ahead at what awaits us in 2013. US fiscal policy, the Eurozone, the BRICs, China and the Middle East are all giving cause for worry.

Thomas Wyatt: The Heart’s Forest
By Allston Mitchell

In Susan Brigden's new biography of the poet and diplomat Thomas Wyatt, the first truly modern voice in poetry is revealed as a canny player in the capricious and dangerous court of Henry VIII. A complex and flawed man of great genius whose poems were of unrivalled originality.

Have We Solved ‘Too Big to Fail’?
By Andrew G. Haldane

The Sub-prime Crisis became the Global Crisis when one too-big-to-fail bank was allowed to fail. Andrew Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, at the Bank of England. argues that too-big-to-fail is far from gone despite years of reform efforts.

Libya’s Radical Muslim Groups
By Daniel Wagner - Giorgio Cafiero

It would be an understatement to say that the National Transition Council (NTC) has failed to govern Libya effectively since the fall of Gaddafi. The majority of territory outside Tripoli has fallen under the control of armed militias that have refused to disarm.

Lost Tribes
By Daniel Levy

The Israeli election on Jan 22 is not about Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. It is best understood as a "Tribes of Israel" election that will take identity politics to a new level and may accelerate Israel's journey towards hegemonic nationalism writes Daniel Levy, the Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Religious Strife in Russia
By Astrit Dakli

After four generations of being an officially secular state, Russia now has something akin to a war between moderate and hard line Islam being fought on its doorstep while the Orthodox Church is becoming heavily involved in Kremlin politics.

The MONUSCO Contradiction
By Moctar Aboubacar

Elevating the military role of UN peacekeeping forces would do little to address the root causes of instability and violence in the Congo. MONUSCO needs to be a force for stability in a diverse field of international actors, and it needs to help provide for a more durable system of civilian protection.

Happy 2013?
By Charles Wyplosz

Financial market quiescence has removed pressure for immediate policy action on the Eurozone crisis. While important repairs were made in 2012, the most difficult ones still lie ahead. Much remains to be done by unwilling politicians. Things will have to get worse before they get better.

After Doha: rejecting dystopia by default
By Nick Buxton and Ben Hayes

Fear and insecurity are filling the void left by our governments' inaction on climate change but framing Climate Change as a security problem may only perpetuate that.

Political Change in the CAR
By Daniel Wagner - Giorgio Cafiero

As was the case in Mali, recent events in the Central African Republic (CAR) have the potential to profoundly impact the dynamics of political change in Africa, where the plethora of failed or failing states provides a ripe breeding ground for extremists to assume power.

Russia’s Oprichnik Economy
By Andrei Zaostrovtsev

Owning a business in Russia today is a hazardous affair: each year thousands of companies close after their owners are accused of ‘economic crimes’ and face either prison or protection payments to government officials.

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